The Dollar and the Rate You Pay

Here's the part nobody's putting on the news: your 30-year mortgage rate isn't really about the Fed this year. It's about the dollar.

The chain

Foreign central banks hold trillions in US Treasuries as their "safe" reserve. When the dollar is strong, those reserves gain value in their local currencies. When the dollar weakens, they lose. Right now a lot of them are hedging — quietly rotating out of US Treasuries into gold, euros, and commodities.

Fewer buyers for Treasuries means the Treasury has to offer a higher yield to move the same amount of debt. Higher 10-year yield pulls your 30-year mortgage right along with it. That's the chain: dollar weakens → foreign central banks sell Treasuries → yields go up → your rate goes up.

Why this won't show up on your local news

Because it's boring and takes more than six seconds to explain. "The Fed is stuck" fits a headline. "Global reserve diversification is the slow-motion force setting your rate" does not.

The thing behind the thing is almost always something big, slow, and invisible. This is one of those.

What to actually do with this

Stop trying to time the Fed — they're not in charge right now. If you're buying a primary residence or a rental, the math that matters is price now vs. where prices will be when yields finally come back down. In most of the country, that's a math problem you can win.

You lock in today's price with today's rate. When the dollar eventually stabilizes and the global bid returns, your rate drops on a refi. You never lock a price again.